Hi Todd, ODs/homicides are just a fraction of the lockdown-induced YLLs and when you add the rest it's pretty clear that YLLs from non-Covid will significantly outweigh Covid YLL.

As for in the absence of lockdowns ODs not increasing, I think that is indeed a reasonable conclusion b/c they were mostly flat in the year or two prior and their increase monthly in 2020 correlates very well, as I write, with the stringency of lockdowns.

Ditto for homicides, though their correlation isn't as clear.

I address at the end of my piece the argument that without lockdowns Covid YLLs would have increased. Short summary: even if they had doubled without lockdowns (which is highly unlikely b/c if anything lockdowns cause more harm overall, not less), non-Covid YLL would probably still have been higher than Covid YLL.

As for figure 7, I don't argue that all ODs would have been prevented by no lockdowns. My point was that if we're comparing large-scale social problems like excess deaths and YLLs, it is reasonable to compare all ODs with all Covid-19 linked deaths. And the YLL from OD deaths alone significantly outweigh the YLL from all Covid-19 linked deaths. Does that make sense?

The point is that we're focused way too much on Covid at the expense of other very significant problems that are being significantly exacerbated by lockdown mentality. That shouldn't be a controversial point and the data support it quite well. See my other blog post on global hunger to drive the point home.