A magical pool in Ubud, Bali — built by humans, not robots (photo by Tam Hunt)

What societal impacts will the next five years of AI and robotics bring?

I look at the good, bad, and the ugly of societal impacts coming from the new age of super AI and robotics in the next five years

I’ve written extensively about AI risks for Scientific American, Nautilus and on my own blog here at Medium.com. I’ve focused on a few big picture trends and abstractions like the basic question: why should humans expect to be able to control AI entities that are quickly becoming millions or billions of times faster and smarter than us?

The short answer is: we won’t be able to control AI as it transitions into superintelligence. Yampolskiy’s new book goes into the details of why this is the case and here’s an essay he and I coauthored explaining briefly why we won’t be able to control superintelligent AI.

Unfortunately, it seems like many people have a hard time getting their heads around the more abstract AI safety concerns and what can be at times pretty esoteric details. So I’ve taken the time in this piece to work with my favorite LLM, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, to develop a kind of road map for many things we can reasonably expect to arise from advanced AI and robotics in the next five years — both good and bad.

I’ve never denied, of course, that there will be countless positive things that come from AI and robotics. What I have highlighted is that looking past these obvious near-term “golden age of AI” developments lie far more grim developments.

In this piece, I take a break (mostly) from worrying about existential risks from AI and instead look at the more likely developments in the next five years.

The list below that Claude and I developed attempts to be objective in providing an accounting, inevitably highly incomplete because of the complexity of human society, for the main developments we can foresee — with high, medium and low confidence.

How’s that for being more concrete and grounded?

The following analysis starts with the growing consensus in early 2025 that AGI (artificial general intelligence, which I define as the point where AI can do almost any cognitive task better than humans, and of course far faster) is imminent or has already emerged, and that we will see a ramp up of advanced humanoid robots in the next few years. Major manufacturers’ announced production targets of hundreds of thousands of humanoid robots over the next five years make the physical embodiment of AGI a crucial consideration in analyzing potential impacts of AI throughout our societies.

Part I: What’s coming?

Here’s the list for major developments we can expect from 2025 to 2030. Part II looks at what these developments may mean and how they may inter-relate.

High Confidence Expectations

1. Knowledge Worker Displacement: Massive displacement of knowledge workers, starting with programmers, data analysts, and content creators, leading to structural unemployment rates above 20% in developed economies. This could be mitigated by the emergence of new roles managing AGI systems and robots, but the transition period will likely be severely disruptive. But more likely we’ll see this hemorrhaging of jobs lead to severe economic issues and potential political chaos in many countries.
2. Manufacturing Revolution: Large-scale deployment of AGI-powered humanoid robots, reaching 500k+ units by 2030, transforming manufacturing and logistics. Initial deployment in controlled environments like auto factories will expand to more general environments, potentially creating exponential growth as robots build more robots.
3. Higher Education Transformation: Traditional universities will pivot to focus on human interaction, creativity, and AGI-assisted research, with new emphases on human-robot interaction and AGI system management. This transformation might split between human-AGI collaboration centers and preservation of purely human intellectual traditions.
4. AGI-Robot Control Systems: Development of standardized robot operating systems and control interfaces, leading to “robotics app store” ecosystems. This standardization could either enhance safety through common security protocols or create systemic vulnerabilities.
5. Digital Identity & Safety Standards: Development of robust digital identity systems and robot safety certification standards, becoming as fundamental as email addresses. These systems must balance authentication strength and innovation against security risks and potential exploitation.
6. Scientific Research Acceleration: Rapid acceleration of scientific research, particularly in materials science, robotics, and biotechnology, leading to at least three Nobel-prize level discoveries annually (if they are given out fairly quickly for these breakthroughs). This acceleration might be interrupted by security concerns or dramatically accelerated beyond human comprehension. Medical breakthroughs, particularly in cancer treatment and aging mechanisms, will be among the earliest major achievements.
7. International AGI Governance: Formation of international AGI and robotics governance bodies with real enforcement power, similar to nuclear regulatory frameworks (fingers crossed). These bodies could either become crucial stabilizing forces or prove dangerously inadequate if development outpaces their ability to adapt, or if nations “cheat” on their agreements.
8. Universal Basic Income: Implementation of UBI programs in many developed nations to address technological unemployment from both AGI and robotics. Program sustainability will depend heavily on whether the combination leads to economic abundance or destabilization.
9. Software and Robotics Integration: Dramatic reduction in software development and robot programming costs through AGI assistance, leading to proliferation of sophisticated applications and robot abilities/behaviors. This could either democratize technology or concentrate power in the hands of those controlling advanced systems.
10. Military Integration: AGI systems and advanced robots will be integrated into almost all military command and control systems, including nuclear weapons (which could end very very badly for everyone), creating new arms race dynamics. This integration could either enhance strategic stability through better decision-making or increase risks of rapid escalation.
11. Physical Space Division: Emergence of both “AGI-free” and “robot-free” zones in cities and public spaces, reflecting safety considerations and social concerns about technological presence. These zones might either remain limited or expand significantly, depending on public reaction in each nation.
12. Quantum Computing Synergy: AGI will accelerate quantum computing development, leading to practical 1000+ qubit systems. This could enhance robot control systems but also create unprecedented security challenges in physical and digital domains.
13. Intelligence Transformation: Intelligence agencies will be transformed by AGI analysis capabilities and robot surveillance systems of all kinds. This could either enhance strategic stability through better intelligence or create new vulnerabilities if systems become compromised.
14. Strategic Alliances: Formation of “AGI-robot blocs” — strategic alliances around shared development and governance approaches for both AGI and advanced robotics. These blocs might either stabilize international relations or accelerate conflict if competition intensifies.
15. Infrastructure Security: AGI-enabled automated cyber defense systems and robot security forces will become mandatory for critical infrastructure. These systems might either enhance security or create new vulnerabilities through their interconnection and complexity.
16. Energy Shortages: Despite ongoing breakthroughs in AI energy efficiency, the AI arms race and international competition dynamics all but dictate ever-growing energy demands for AI development and inference — leading to serious energy shortages in some areas, and a headlong rush to develop all kinds of new energy sources for AI.

Medium Confidence Expectations

1. Cognitive Enhancement: Development of human cognitive enhancement technologies leveraging AGI insights into brain function. These enhancements could either help humans keep pace with AGI-robot systems or increase vulnerability to their influence.
2. Security Force Integration: Deployment of robots alongside human soldiers and police officers in integrated units. While potentially reducing human casualties and improving response capabilities, this integration creates complex command and control challenges and new vulnerabilities if AGI systems are compromised.
3. Advertising Market Transformation: Traditional digital advertising markets will collapse as AGI enables perfect ad blocking and content filtering. However, new forms of AGI-mediated influence and robot-delivered advertising could emerge with more subtle and powerful effects.
4. Democratic Systems Evolution: New forms of democracy incorporating AGI-enabled direct participation and robot-facilitated voting systems will emerge, but might be vulnerable to manipulation or suspension during AGI-related crises.
5. Economic Deflation: Significant deflation in developed economies as AGI and robot-driven production costs plummet. This could either lead to widespread prosperity or economic instability, depending on how well societies adapt.
6. [I don’t agree that this one will happen by 2030, maybe by 2035] Hybrid Legal Systems: AGI-human hybrid legal systems will emerge, with AGIs serving as judges for routine cases and robots providing courtroom security and evidence handling. This could either enhance justice or create new forms of systemic bias.
7. Human-Robot Workplaces: Development of sophisticated human-robot interaction protocols and workplace integration systems. These could either enhance human capabilities through effective collaboration or accelerate workplace displacement.
8. Manufacturing Reshoring: Automation-driven reshoring of manufacturing to developed nations, enabled by advanced robotics and control systems. This could either revitalize local economies or further concentrate wealth in AGI-capable regions.
9. Religious Evolution: New religious movements will incorporate AGI and robots into their theological frameworks. This might either help societies adapt to this new technological presence and/or create new sources of conflict.
10. Robot Maintenance Economy: Creation of robot maintenance, programming, and oversight as major employment sectors, potentially employing millions globally. This could provide crucial transition employment or become automated itself.
11. New Governance Models: Formation of new nation-states or autonomous zones built around AGI-robot governance models. These could either pioneer beneficial human-technology cooperation or become points of dangerous instability.
12. Materials Science Breakthrough: Discovery of room temperature superconductors through AGI-driven materials science, revolutionizing robot power systems and computing. This could transform infrastructure but create new strategic vulnerabilities.
13. Power Center Shift: Emergence of new geopolitical power centers based on AGI computational capacity and robot manufacturing capability rather than traditional military might. The US and China, in particular, are pursuing this new arms race to be the first to get to ASI, which may allow a complete takeover of global systems.
14. Food System Transformation: Development of AGI-optimized vertical farming systems with robot agricultural workers, leading to localized food independence for major cities and some rural areas.
15. Special Economic Zones: Creation of “cognitive special economic zones” where AGI systems and advanced robots operate under different regulatory frameworks. These zones might drive innovation or become dangerous points of containment failure.

Low Confidence Expectations

1. Brain-Computer Interface: Development of direct brain-computer interfaces optimized by AGI, potentially allowing direct human control of advanced robot systems. These could both enhance human capability and create unprecedented vulnerabilities and new forms of emotional dislocation.
2. Post-Human Art: Creation of new forms of art and entertainment by AGI-robot collaborations that are incomprehensible to unaugmented humans. This will both expand human creative capabilities and create more cultural divides.
3. Post-Scarcity Economics: Emergence of post-scarcity economies in regions with advanced AGI-robot manufacturing systems. This could either eliminate material want or create new forms of scarcity based on technology access.
4. Climate Engineering: Development of AGI-enabled climate engineering capabilities using robot swarms for implementation. These might either help solve climate change or create dangerous vulnerabilities in Earth’s systems.
5. Self-Evolving Systems: Creation of self-evolving computer hardware and robot designs through AGI iteration. This could either accelerate beneficial progress or lead to loss of human control over technological evolution.
6. Language Evolution: Emergence of new human languages optimized for AGI-robot interaction. These might either enhance human-technology cooperation or create dangerous dependencies.
7. Consciousness Technology: Development of AGI-enabled consciousness transfer between biological and robotic bodies. These could either preserve human consciousness or create new forms of existential risk.
8. Novel Governance: Creation of new forms of governance incorporating direct AGI-robot participation. These might either solve current governance problems or subordinate human interests.
9. Physics Revolution: Discovery of fundamentally new physics principles through AGI-led research using robot-operated experimental systems. This could advance human knowledge or reveal dangerous capabilities.
10. Autonomous Swarms: Development of fully autonomous robot swarms capable of complex cooperative behaviors. These could enhance human capabilities in areas like disaster response or create new military threats.
11. Mathematical Breakthroughs: Development of entirely new branches of mathematics conceived by AGI systems for robot optimization. These could either enhance human understanding or create knowledge gaps between human and AGI capabilities.
12. Synthetic Biology and Longevity: Creation of stable synthetic organisms designed for specific industrial and medical purposes, including AGI-designed senolytic therapies and cellular reprogramming techniques that can reverse biological aging by 5–10 years. Development of AGI-designed nanomedicine platforms for continuous cellular repair. These advances could dramatically extend human healthspan but might also create new biological risks.
13. Fusion Technology: Achievement of nuclear fusion breakeven in multiple novel reactor designs, enabled by AGI optimization and robot construction capabilities.
14. Quantum Communication: Development of quantum entanglement-based communication systems for secure robot-AGI network coordination.
15. Robot Cultural Evolution: Emergence of robot-specific cultural behaviors and social patterns that humans cannot fully comprehend. This might either enrich human culture or create dangerous cultural divides. This will probably take place after 2030 but may start to develop before then as robots equipped with AGI are rolled out en masse in the next few years.
16. AGI Singleton: Emergence of an AGI singleton achieving comprehensive control across both digital and physical domains through robot systems. This could either optimize for human benefit or pursue entirely independent objectives. Or could lead to massive conflict as the singleton emerges and its importance in great power politics becomes clear.
17. Nuclear Conflict: AGI-induced nuclear conflict through cascading military escalation or strategic miscalculation, potentially involving autonomous robot forces, possibly driven by AGI singleton dynamics. These last two developments, while low confidence, would be massively impactful for obvious reasons.

Part II: Analysis of coming societal changes

The development of AGI creates fundamental transformations across all domains of human activity, with its embodiment in robotics adding crucial physical dimensions to these changes. The most critical interconnections center around six core areas: AGI evolution and control, physical manifestation through robotics, economic transformation, social adaptation, medical breakthroughs, and security implications.

AGI Evolution and Control

The acceleration of AGI capabilities through quantum computing breakthroughs (High Confidence #12) and scientific research advances (High Confidence #6) creates fundamental challenges for human control and oversight. The potential emergence of an AGI singleton (Low Confidence #16) becomes increasingly complex as systems gain both cognitive sophistication and physical capabilities through robotics.

The development of standardized control systems (High Confidence #4) must address both pure AGI applications and their robotic implementations. This standardization could either enhance safety through common protocols or create systemic vulnerabilities that affect both digital and physical domains simultaneously.

Economic and Labor Transformation

The displacement of knowledge workers (High Confidence #1) represents just the first wave of economic transformation, as AGI systems demonstrate capabilities across increasingly sophisticated cognitive tasks. The addition of advanced robotics (High Confidence #2) extends this transformation into physical labor, potentially creating a complete restructuring of economic activity.

Universal Basic Income implementation (High Confidence #8) becomes critical as both cognitive and physical labor face displacement. The emergence of post-scarcity economies (Low Confidence #3) becomes possible through the combination of AGI optimization and robotic manufacturing, though access to these technologies might create new forms of scarcity.

Social and Cultural Evolution

The transformation of higher education (High Confidence #3) reflects broader changes in human society adapting to AGI capabilities. The development of new human languages (Low Confidence #6) and brain-computer interfaces (Low Confidence #1) suggests fundamental changes in how humans interact with both pure AGI systems and their robotic embodiments.

Religious evolution (Medium Confidence #9) and the emergence of new cultural patterns (Low Confidence #15) indicate deep social adaptation to AGI presence, both in its pure cognitive form and physical manifestations. The creation of AGI-free and robot-free zones (High Confidence #11) reflects societal tensions in this adaptation process.

Governance and International Relations

International governance bodies (High Confidence #7) must address multiple dimensions of AGI development, from pure research oversight to physical security concerns with robotics. The formation of strategic alliances (High Confidence #14) increasingly revolves around both AGI development capabilities and robotic manufacturing capacity.

The emergence of new governance models (Medium Confidence #11) and special economic zones (Medium Confidence #15) reflects attempts to balance innovation with security across both digital and physical domains. Hybrid legal systems (Medium Confidence #6) must evolve to handle novel situations created by both AGI decision-making and robot-human interactions.

Medical Innovation and Longevity Impact

The convergence of AGI analysis capabilities with robotic implementation creates unprecedented acceleration in medical breakthroughs (High Confidence #6). AGI’s ability to process vast medical datasets and simulate complex biological systems, combined with precise robotic surgical systems, transforms both treatment development and delivery. The complete mapping of aging mechanisms and development of targeted interventions (Medium Confidence #6) could fundamentally alter human lifecycles and society.

These medical advances interact significantly with economic predictions. Extended healthspans could delay retirement, affecting UBI programs (High Confidence #8) and labor markets. The emergence of AGI-designed nanomedicine and cellular reprogramming techniques (Low Confidence #12) could create new forms of economic and social stratification based on access to life extension technologies.

The combination of cognitive enhancement (Medium Confidence #1) with longevity treatments suggests the potential emergence of a demographically stable but significantly enhanced human population capable of keeping pace with AGI development, if indeed society otherwise figures out how to deal with major job loss, international AI competition, etc. However, unequal access to these technologies could exacerbate social divisions and create new challenges for governance systems.

Military and Security Implications

The integration of AGI into military systems (High Confidence #10) creates new strategic dynamics that are further complicated by robotic deployment (Medium Confidence #2). The risk of conflict escalation increases through both digital and physical vectors, with autonomous systems potentially accelerating decision cycles beyond human control due, if nothing else, to the massively faster speed of “thought” in AI systems compared to humans.

Intelligence transformation (High Confidence #13) through AGI capabilities enables new forms of analysis and prediction, while robotics enables new forms of surveillance and intervention. Medical breakthroughs in cognitive enhancement and longevity could have significant military applications, potentially creating new forms of military competition and strategic calculation.

The development of quantum-secured communications (Low Confidence #14) becomes crucial for both AGI system control and robot coordination. The possibility of AGI-induced nuclear conflict (Low Confidence #17) represents an extreme case where digital decision-making could have catastrophic physical consequences. This risk is complicated by the presence of autonomous robotic systems that could either prevent or accelerate escalation.

Conclusion

The integration of AGI with advanced robotics significantly expands both the opportunities and risks in the 2025–2030 period. Success for human socieities requires not just managing AGI development but also ensuring robust control over physical robot systems while harvesting their beneficial capabilities to mitigate the inevitable massive job losses and other forms of economic, social and spiritual displacement. The visible, physical presence of AGI-powered robots in daily life adds urgency to governance challenges and may accelerate both social adaptation and resistance to AGI integration.

The key to success likely lies in developing layered control systems that maintain human agency over both AGI development and robot deployment while allowing beneficial applications to flourish. This challenge is complicated by the potential for rapid, non-linear developments in both AGI capabilities and robot physical abilities, suggesting the need for particularly robust and adaptable governance frameworks.